- Preliminary UMich consumer sentiment data
- Prior was 58.4
- Current conditions 55.4 vs 62.5 prior
- Expectations 46.8 vs 54.5 prior
- 1-year inflation 5.4% vs 5.3% prior
- 5-10 year 3.3% vs 3.0% prior — highest since 2008
These numbers are terrible. This is the lowest reading ever in this series, which dates back to the 1970s.
There’s very good reason to think that’s an exaggeration as politics infects the surveys but it’s still headed quickly in the wrong direction. For the Fed, that jump in long-term inflation expectations is a major red flag and the kind of thing that will make them panic with more-aggressive rate hikes.